MARC decides Senai Desaru Expressway rating remains BBB-IS

MARC has affirmed its rating of BBB-IS on Senai-Desaru Expressway’s (SDEB's) RM1.89 billion Islamic Medium-Term Notes (Restructured Sukuk) Programme with a stable outlook.

The rating incorporates the improving traffic volume on the expressway and the accommodative payment structure under the programme, which provides SDEB with headroom to improve its cash flow coverage. Under the restructured sukuk, initiated in 2014, the step-up profit rate structure eases liquidity pressure in the early years of the programme’s tenure, allowing for cash buildup to meet its back-ended principal obligations. In addition, extension of the concession to 2053 from the initial 2038 allows for upside benefit from traffic volume growth generated from planned developments in the expressway’s service areas. The rating also takes into account SDEB’s continued weak credit profile, characterised by persistent negative shareholders’ funds.

MARC notes that total annual traffic volume on the Senai-Pasir Gudang-Desaru Expressway (SDE), which comprises a 77km tolled inter-urban expressway between Senai and Desaru with a connecting highway to Pasir Gudang, increased 17.6% year-on-year (YoY) to 292.4 million passenger car unit-kilometres (pcu-km). The growth was 10.6% higher than the projected traffic volume. The improvement, despite a toll hike in October 2015, has been attributed to increased development activities along the expressway, widening works on the toll-free alternative, and the ongoing projects in Pengerang, where the multi-billion ringgit RAPID project is in progress. Given the actual traffic CAGR of 6.9% over the last three years, traffic volume growth would need to at least sustain to meet traffic projections: the SDE is projected to achieve CAGR of 8.3% from 2016 to 2022, normalising to 7.4% until 2038 before declining to 5%.

The sensitivity analysis on SDEB’s cash flow projections demonstrates that the company can withstand a drop of 7.4% in traffic volume from the base case projections throughout the sukuk tenure and a higher-than-expected operating cost of 4.8% per annum. MARC notes that in the absence of toll hikes and no government compensations given, SDEB’s debt servicing ability would come under pressure starting in FY17. The sensitivity results also show that delays in the RAPID project would weigh on SDEB’s traffic volume and, consequently its cash flows to meet principal repayment of the sukuk, which commences by FY2039.

The back-ended amortisation structure provides SDEB headroom to strengthen its liquidity position in order to maintain compliance with the covenanted finance service cover ratio (FSCR) of 1.25 times, a requirement that commences from June 30, 2018 and runs throughout the remaining tenure of the restructured sukuk.

As at 8MFY2016, the company’s cash and cash balances stood at a low RM26.6 million relative to its financial obligations. MARC remains concerned on SDEB’s sizeable obligations under the concession agreement to widen and upgrade the Cahaya Baru-Pasir Gudang and Ulu Tiram-Cahaya Baru stretches in 2016 and 2017 respectively. However, due to the low usage of the aforementioned stretches, SDEB is seeking a deferment from the government as it will need to incur costs of about RM373.6 million to carry out the upgrading works. The sukuk holders have given SDEB an extension until June 30, 2016 to obtain approval, failing which a technical breach would occur.

The stable outlook reflects SDEB achieving sustainable traffic performance and timely receipt of government compensations as demonstrated in the recent years. Any revision to the rating and/or outlook would depend on the outcome of deferment on the upgrading works or any material deviations from the assumptions set out in the projections.

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IDB joins other development banks in committing to mitigate transport emissions

Eight multilateral development banks (MDBs) today issued a joint statement committing to accelerate their efforts to mitigate transport emissions and recognising the need for more action on the resilience of transport to climate change. The sector accounts for about 60% of global oil consumption, 27% of all energy use, and 23% of world energy-related CO² emissions.

In their statement, the African Development Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB), CAF-Development Bank of Latin America, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, European Investment Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, Islamic Development Bank (IDB), and the World Bank (WB) pledged to speed up action on:

- MDBs have recently committed to substantially increase financing for climate change mitigation and adaptation over the next few years. Transport is expected to play a key role in that commitment.

- The MDBs will increase their focus on low-carbon transport solutions and will continue to harmonise tools and metrics to assess transport-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

- Adaptation: The MDBs will jointly develop a systematic approach to mainstream climate resilience in transport policies, plans and investments.

“We, the multilateral development banks, believe that climate change is a defining challenge of our time. Actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and stabilise warming at two degrees Celsius will fall short if they do not include the transport sector. We commit to support countries in the implementation of sustainable transport solutions by providing critically needed financial and technical support to assist them in responding to rising aspirations for greater mobility and connectivity, in a sustainable and resilient way,” said Luis Alberto Moreno, President of the Inter-American Development Bank.

Moreno presented the statement on behalf of the eight MDBs during the Transport segment of the Lima Paris Action Agenda. Among the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions submitted as of November 12, 2015, about three quarters explicitly identify the transport sector as a mitigation source, and more than two thirds propose transport sector-specific mitigation measures. In 2012, the MDBs pledged US$175 billion by 2022 in financial resources for more sustainable transport.

"Supporting our member countries to develop efficient transport systems that are climate smart and resilient is a major goal for us. We will work together with other MDBs to ensure that we come up with innovative solutions that will help reduce carbon emissions,” said Dr Ahmad Mohamed Ali, President of IDB.

"Transport must be a significant piece of the climate solution. We have the opportunity to transform transportation services so they are low-carbon and resilient to climate impacts. Now is the time to turn our commitments into action and we stand ready to work with countries as they develop low carbon and climate-resilient transport activities,” said Laura Tuck, World Bank Vice President for Sustainable Development.